This paper derives the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of a first order linear autoregression with exponential innovations. We show that even if the process is stationary, the estimator is T-consistent, where T is the sample size. In the unit root case the estimate is...

In this paper we replace the Gaussian errors in the standard Gaussian, linear state space model with stochastic volatility processes. This is called a GSSF-SV model. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this type of model are ineffective, but that this problem can be removed by...

This paper is concerned with Markov chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian inference in generalized models of stochastic volatility defined by heavy-tailed student-t distributions (with unknown degrees of freedom) and covariate effects in the observation and volatility equations. A simple, fast and...

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation of non-linear stochastic differential equations when only discrete observations are available. The estimation is carried out using a tuned MCMC method, in particular a blocked Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, by introducing auxiliary points and...

This paper is concerned with the fitting and comparison of high dimensional multivariate time series models with time varying correlations. The models considered here combine features of the classical factor model with those of the univariate stochastic volatility model. Specifically, a set of...

This paper discusses and documents the algorithms of SsfPack 2.2. SsfPack is a suite of C routines for carrying out computations involving the statistical analysis of univariate and multivariate models in state space form. The emphasis is on documenting the link we have made to the Ox computing...

Importance sampling is used in many aspects of modern econometrics to approximate unsolvable integrals. Its reliable use requires the sampler to possess a variance, for this guarantees a square root speed of convergence and asymptotic normality of the estimator of the integral. However, this...

In this chapter we propose using compound Poisson processes to model trade-by-trade financial data. Our main focus will be on developing specific types of Cox processes in order to accurately depict the trading process. We study the problem of signal extracting the intensity of the trading...