I show that the fiscal position of the UK means it will be very hard for the next government to allow the undergraduate fee cap to increase beyond the rate of inflation.  The funding postion of the higher education sector can be improved by the government removing the interest rate subsidy it...

In this paper we introduce a decomposition of the joint distribution of price changes of assets recorded trade-by-trade. Our decomposition means that we can model the dynamics of price changes using quite simple and interpretable models which are easily extended in a great number of directions,...

Suppose we wish to carry out likelihood based inference but we solely have an unbiased simulation based estimator of the likelihood. We note that unbiasedness is enough when the estimated likelihood is used inside a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. This result has recently been intro- duced in...

Non-Gaussian processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, or OU processes for short, offer the possibility of capturing important distributional deviations from Gaussianity and for flexible modelling of dependence structures. This paper develops this potential, drawing on and extending powerful results...

GARCH models are commonly used as latent processes in econometrics, financial economics and macroeconomics. Yet no exact likelihood analysis of these models has been provided so far. In this paper we outline the issues and suggest a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation...