We show that in a model with equity and debt financing, the specfication of the borrowing constraint is crucial to generate empirically plausible responses of macro variables and asset prices to financial shocks. The interaction between financial frictions and labor demand, as in Jermann and...

Returns from a zero-investment portfolio that is long in US firms whose dividends alter during a year, and short in firms whose dividends remain the same, produces positive returns in 52 of the 53 years between 1955 and 2007. These positive returns are related to expected inflation, which...

Changes in shipping freight rates predict stock market returns. In today's global world, where economies are linked through international trade, shipping freight rates carry information about economic activity which is reflected in stock returns. Our results are statistically and economically...

This paper investigates the factors that affect the covariance between the federal funds rate and stock returns. I estimate a VAR system and implement covariance decomposition analysis. Most of the covariance between the federal funds rate and stock returns is affected by changes in stock market...

This paper examines the information content of two different measures of aggregate equity-market order flow for future macro fundamentals and expected stock market returns. The first measure, the cross-sectional average of individual stock order flows, predicts future growth rates for industrial...

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formed on the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differential manner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results...

What is the link between stock returns and news about economic growth? Using consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters, I find that the univariate association between stock returns and GDP growth forecast surprises is indistinguishable from zero. While...

This article investigates returns and volatility linkages among stock markets, including emerging Asian (e.g., India, China, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippine, and South Korea) stock markets and developed (e.g., United States, United Kingdom, Japan, and Singapore) stock markets. During the sample...

We show that economic activity plays an important role in explaining momentum-based anomalies. A simple two-factor model containing the market and alternative indicators of economic activity as risk factors---industrial production, capacity utilization rate, retail sales, and a broad economic...

This paper investigates the moderating impact of FDI & FPI in the association of macro-economic variables along with Oil prices & Index returns. Monthly data has been used from the period 2005 to 2018. Efficient unit root & break point unit root tests results indicate that all variables are...