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Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249767
With bond yields at all-time lows after the Fed's quantitative easing drove real interest rates to the zero-bound and even briefly below it, investors have allocated ever more money to equities. Lacking alternatives, the stock market has grown flush from yield-hungry buyers. But now the mood is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049629
is able to account for the development of endogenous bubbles and crashes. We distinguish three different regimes …’ opinions are idiosyncratic and no bubbles emerge. Around the critical value of the O(n) vector model, cross sectionally … asynchronous bubbles emerge. Above the critical value, small random price fluctuations may be amplified by noise traders herding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799633
their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles … collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093992
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001617689
speculative bubbles and/or noise trading behavior. Our empirical findings for the US stock market covering the 1871:1 - 2000 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503717
We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size … decide whether to lend to traders with limited liability. Bubbles increase welfare of the initial asset holders, but reduce … welfare of future households. We provide general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418275
Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally … asset pricing model that allows for speculative bubbles to affect stock returns. We show that stocks incorporating larger … bubbles yield higher returns. The bubble deviation, at the stock level as opposed to the industry or market level, is a priced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089654
The VAR approach for testing present value models is applied to a nonlinear asset pricing model with three types of agents, using historical US stock prices and dividends. Besides rational long-term investors, that value assets according to expected dividends, the model includes rational and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938591
crash (and rally) discrete jump distributions associated with positive (and negative) bubbles. We assume that crashes tend …, which has been previously proposed as a general definition of bubbles. Our bubble model also allows for a sequence of small …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865575