There has been considerable research into dynamic global tactical asset allocation (GTAA) strategies driven by simple measures of Valuation and Momentum applied to a baseline balanced portfolio of equities and fixed income (see Blitz and van Vliet 2008, Wang and Kochard 2011, Gnedenko and Yelnik...

Anomaly-based investment/pricing factors are typically built from portfolios double-sorted on size and one additional characteristic, applying simple long/short fixed-weights schemes. Characteristic-based portfolios show significant time variations of their abnormal returns and market exposures....

In this paper, we design a new portfolio selection system named Passive Aggressive Neural Network Ensembles (PANNE). PANNE integrates an Adaboost improved BP Neural Network price pattern recognition strategy with Passive Aggressive Online Learning algorithm. In order to make the intelligent...

As some recent studies have shown empirically, future gold price fluctuations are especially difficult to forecast. Against this background, this study evaluates the forecasting power of three methods that have been applied successfully in a stock market prediction context: 1) technical...

We propose a Multivariate Volatility Regulated Kelly strategy, which has extra penalization on variance compared to the Kelly criterion. The objective function is constructed and solved. We show the superiority of our method in relative low correlated portfolios, relatively to fractional Kelly...

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic, and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

Our study assesses the performance of portfolios formed using out-of-sample sector forecasts and past firm fundamental ratios. Portfolio allocations based on profitability measures - gross profit, operating pro fit, and EBITDA - generate performance substantially better than the benchmark....

The way central banks manage their foreign reserve assets has evolved over the past decades. One major trend is managing reserves in two or more tranches-liquidity tranche and investment tranche-especially for those with adequate reserves. Incorporating reserve tranching, we have developed in...