In a world of imperfect information, reputations often guide the sequential decisions to trust and to reward trust. We consider two-player situations, where one player--the truster--decides whether to trust, and the other player--the temptee--has a temptation to betray when trusted. The strength...

Movements in asset prices are a major risk confronting individuals. This paper establishes new asset pricing results when agents differ in risk preference, time preference and/or expectations. It shows that risk tolerance is a critical concept driving savings decisions, consumption allocations,...

The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill highlighted the glaring weakness in the current liability and regulatory regime for oil spills and for environmental catastrophes more broadly. This article proposes a new liability structure for deep sea oil drilling and for catastrophic risks generally. It...

We develop an indirect method to estimate utility and willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the risk of death at various ages. Using a life-cycle model of consumption, we assume that an individual sets his consumption level each year so as to maximize his expected lifetime utility....

An extreme event, such as a nuclear accident, an earthquake, a cluster of adverse reactions to a particular drug, or excessive breakdowns of some class of equipment, frequently focuses attention for the first time on an important issue. By then, however, data on the incidence and magnitudes of...

Financial, managerial, and medical decisions often involve alternatives whose possible outcomes have uncertain probabilities. In contrast to alternatives whose probabilities are known, these uncertain alternatives offer the benefits of learning. In repeat-choice situations, such learning brings...

A regulator, seeking to maximize net benefits, must choose between rules and standards and then set a level of care. The regulated agents have private information about their compliance costs. Rules are set ex ante, so agents know the required level of care. Standards are established after...

Requiring agents with private information to select from a menu of incentive schedules can yield efficiency gains. It will do so if, and only if, agents will receive further private information after selecting the incentive schedule but before taking the action that determines where on the...

Why do indemnity insurance plans cost substantially more per capita—77% more in our study—than HMOs? We answer this question using data from a large organization’s insurance pool, covering 215,000 lives. We decompose cost differences for eight major medical conditions into...

Survey respondents assessed the risks of terrorist attacks and their consequences and were asked how their assessments changed from before September 11 to the present. This paper analyzes those current and recollected risk assessments. More than half of the respondents exhibited what we label...