The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the accession countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of...

Despite the widespread use of graphs in empirical research, little is known about readers' ability to process the statistical information they are meant to convey ("visual inference"). We study visual inference within the context of regression discontinuity (RD) designs by measuring how...

R.G. Goodwin mentioned that "economists will be led, as natural scientists have been led, to seek in nonlinearities an explanation of the maintenance of oscillation" (Goodwin, Econometrica 19(1), 1951); following this reasoning, we studied business cycles as if they were generated by nonlinear...