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We adopt a new approach to study individual stock returns' predictability from prior returns, and show that over short-horizons (daily to weekly), individual stock returns exhibit continuation for moderate prior returns, that is, those in the -1% to 1% interval, and reversal for extreme prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133807
We study the autocorrelation in short-horizon returns of individual stocks over the period 1971 to 2008 using pooled … regression with non-parametric estimation. We find continuation for the central 40% of the return distribution (with returns … quartiles of trade activity. The nonlinear relation in return autocorrelation appears to be invariant in the cross-section of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134135
In this paper we propose and examine new approaches in smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) models. Firstly, a new STAR function is proposed, which is the hyperbolic tangent sigmoid function. Secondly, we propose Feed-Forward Neural Networks Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (FFNN-STAR)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138095
heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012942367
A model of infrequent rebalancing can explain specific predictability patterns in the time-series and cross-section of stock returns. First, infrequent rebalancing produces return autocorrelations that are consistent with empirical evidence from intraday returns and new evidence from daily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974103
return autocorrelation. But return is more likely to reverse itself on days with continuous trading due to investor … disagreement, leading return autocorrelation to be more negative. Contrarian trading strategies conditional on daily measures of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003395
return autocorrelation. But return is more likely to reverse itself on days with continuous trading on dispersion in beliefs …, leading return autocorrelation to be more negative. Contrarian trading strategies conditional on daily measures of investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003995
We present a new finding that the return autocorrelation of underlying stock is an important determinant of expected … equity option returns. Using an extended Black-Scholes model incorporating the presence of stock return autocorrelation, we … show that expected returns of both call and put options are increasing in return autocorrelation coefficient of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012849686
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011714586