can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting process. We find that forecast errors at various forecast horizons …

inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … the exhaustive literature of forecast combinations and apply our newly developed combination method to test for the … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

models and their combinations are evaluated by using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out of sample …

's view to forecast FOMC forecasts. Specifically, monetary policy is forward looking and, in its pursuit of transparency, it …

exploit many predictors, and this chapter surveys these methods. The first group of methods considered is forecast combination … (forecast pooling), in which a single forecast is produced from a panel of many forecasts. The second group of methods is based … increasingly precise as the number of series increases) can be used to forecast individual economic variables. The third group of …

) regression methods to forecast quarterly macroeconomic variables using high‑frequency data. Among a set of frequently used …. Forecast combinations that blend monthly payment system data with other high‑frequency predictors also score high in terms of …

forecast errors, both in aggregate and disaggregated by individual tax type. The analysis focuses primarily on the annual one … such as GDP. The objective of the analysis is to better determine the major sources of tax revenue forecast error and to … individual tax revenue forecast errors are first disaggregated into component errors due to forecasting the macroeconomic drivers …