We consider structural vector autoregressions identified through stochastic volatility. Our focus is on whether a particular structural shock is identified by heteroskedasticity without the need to impose any sign or exclusion restrictions. Three contributions emerge from our exercise: (i) a set...

Central banks and other forecasters have become increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts. However, recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility such as the Great Moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with greater variation in energy prices...

This paper revisits the pricing of options, in a context of financial stress, when the underlying asset's returns displays skewness and excess kurtosis. For that purpose, we use a Cornish-Fisher transformation for valuing option contracts with an exact formula allowing for heavy-tails.An...

Hedge Funds are often considered as a possibility for optimizing traditional portfolios due to their alternative risk factors and sources of return. But as the return distribution of hedge funds shows negative skewness and excess kurtosis, using portfolio optimization techniques, based on the...

Bei der Kreditrisikobewertung müssen die Parameter Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und korrelation geschätzt werden. Diese Schätzung erfolgt unter Unsicherheit. In der Literatur werden asymptotische Konfidenzregionen diskutiert, um diese Unsicherheit bei der simultanen Schätzung beider Parameter...

It is well-known in empirical nance that virtually all asset returns, whether monthly, daily, or intraday, are heavy-tailed and, particularly for stock returns, are mildly but often signi cantly negatively skewed. However, the tail indices, or maximally existing moments of the returns, can di er...

The estimation of multivariate GARCH models remains a challenging task, even in modern computer environments. This manuscript shows how Independent Component Analysis can be used to estimate the Generalized Orthogonal GARCH model in a fraction of the time otherwise required. The proposed method...

In this paper, we propose a multivariate market model with returns assumed to follow a multivariate normal tempered stable distribution. This distribution, defined by a mixture of the multivariate normal distribution and the tempered stable subordinator, is consistent with two stylized facts...

In many economic applications involving comparisons of multivariate distributions, supermodularity of an objective function is a natural property for capturing a preference for greater interdependence. One multivariate distribution dominates another according to the supermodular stochastic...