discourages short-term inflows mainly through portfolio risk and precautionary saving channels. A markup channel generates net FDI … irreversibility of FDI, the currency of export invoicing, risk aversion of outside agents, and effective lower bound in the rest of … the world. Under every scenario, uncertainty policy is inflationary. …

We show that systemic risk in the banking sector breeds macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a model of a production …-driven uncertainty amplifies business cycle volatility and increases risk premia on asset prices. A countercyclical capital buffer lowers …