Standard open economy models predict that openness to trade should exert a positive effect on the slope of the output-inflation tradeoff, or Phillips curve, but such a proposition finds very little support in the existing empirical literature. We propose a new test of this hypothesis based on...

This paper contributes to the debate on the causes of unemployment in interwar Germany. It applies the Layard-Nickell model of the labour market to interwar Germany, using a new quarterly data set. The basic model is extended to capture the effects of the tariff wage under the Weimar Republic...

Two indicators of the Argentinean economic cycle prove to be useful for economic forecasts, the leading and coincident indexes. The former points out the level of economic activity monthly. The latter anticipates the future direction of the economy. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the...

In today's discussions of central banking, maintaining macro-financial stability has only recently appeared along-side the pursuit of low inflation as an important policy goal. This is in strong contrast to the earlier literature, where financial stability was often the main concern of the...

This paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices, and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the U.S. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate...

An important question in empirical macroeconomics is whether structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) can reliably discriminate between competing DSGE models. Several recent papers have suggested that one reason SVARs may fail to do so is because they are finite-order approximations to...

Economists model time as continuous or discrete. The recent literature on continuous time models with delays should help to bridge the gap between these two families of models. In this note, we propose a simple time–to–build model in continuous time, and show that a discrete time version is...

This paper modifies the standard Mortensen-Pissarides job matching model in order to explain the cyclical behavior of vacancies and unemployment. The modifications include strategic wage bargaining (Hall and Milgrom, 2006) and convex labor adjustment costs. The results reveal that our model...

Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series, we find that technology shocks induce an ‘S’- shaped cross-correlation function for the trade balance and the terms of trade (S-curve). In calibrating a prototypical international business cycle model to match the S-curve under complete and...