Die deutsche Wirtschaft lässt die Rezession hinter sich. Ausweislich der Frühindikatoren wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach dem Anstieg im ersten Quartal weiter aufwärtsgerichtet bleiben. Im Verlauf des Jahres werden die steigenden real verfügbaren Einkommen und das anziehende...

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of its models. As a consequence, the estimates...

In this paper we consider the predictors of the business cycle in Great Britain, where the claimant count and unemployment rate are found to be key indicators associated with turning points. Next, we consider at a micro-economic level, using disaggregated local authority level data, a number of...

We compile a novel high-frequency, detailed geographic dataset on mass layoffs from U.S. state labor departments. Using recent advances in difference-in-difference estimation with staggered treatment, we find that locally-mandated stay-at-home orders issued March 16–22, 2020 triggered mass...