Elicitation methods in decision-making under risk allow us to infer the utilities of outcomes as well as the probability weights from the observed preferences of an individual. An optimally efficient elicitation method is proposed, which takes the inevitable distortion of preferences by random...

In binary choice between discrete outcome lotteries, an individual may prefer lottery L <Subscript>1</Subscript> to lottery L <Subscript>2</Subscript> when the probability that L <Subscript>1</Subscript> delivers a better outcome than L <Subscript>2</Subscript> is higher than the probability that L <Subscript>2</Subscript> delivers a better outcome than L <Subscript>1</Subscript>. Such a preference can be rationalized by three...</subscript></subscript></subscript></subscript></subscript></subscript>

In imperfectly discriminating contests the contestants contribute effort to win a prize but the highest contributed effort does not necessarily secure a win. The contest success function (CSF) is the technology that translates an individual’s effort into his or her probability of winning. This...

This paper proposes a new decision theory of how individuals make random errors when they compute the expected utility of risky lotteries. When distorted by errors, the expected utility of a lottery never exceeds (falls below) the utility of the highest (lowest) outcome. This assumption implies...