Exponential smoothing methods do not involve a formal procedure for identifying the underlying data generating process. The issue is then whether prediction intervals should be estimated by a theoretical approach, with the assumption that the method is optimal in some sense, or by an empirical...

We present an agent-based model of a multi-tier energy market including gas shippers, electricity generators and retailers. We show how reward interdependence between strategic business units within a vertically integrated firm can increase its profits in oligopolistic energy markets. The...

This paper proposes an approach that models and forecasts sales through a flexible parametric response function (multifunctional), allowing for differentiated behavioural assumptions of the response determinants to be specified, and uses neural network modelling as a re-specification tool for...

This paper investigates the day-ahead forecasting performance of fundamental price models for electricity spot prices, intended to capture: (i) the impacts of economic, technical, strategic and risk factors on intra-day prices; and (ii) the dynamics of these effects over time. A time-varying...

This paper addresses the economic impact of the EU Emission Trading Scheme for carbon on wholesale electricity and gas prices. Specifically, we analyse the mutual relationships between electricity, gas and carbon prices in the daily spot markets in the United Kingdom. Using a structural...