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We conjecture that the forward puzzle may reflect career risks: when professional investors observe public danger signals about a currency, they require a premium for holding it. We find evidence of this in ERM rates. As deep discounts do signal danger, we next specify nonlinear variants of the...
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exists, arbitrage opportunities must also exist. Conversely, at times when arbitrage profits exist, asset markets are … susceptible to self-fulfilling fluctuations. The tight theoretical connection between price volatility and arbitrage is detectable …
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