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Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the … factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies … inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264538
We show that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563170
We show that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210448
I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States that incorporates oil market shocks and risk shocks working through credit market frictions. The findings of this analysis indicate that risk shocks play a crucial role during the Great Recession and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014474905
A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation … structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the … inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009159987
A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation … structural relationship between inflation and output, as opposed to a change in the size and nature of the shocks hitting the … inflation and resource utilization and its dependence on the nature and size of the shocks. Our analysis suggests that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124106
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910359
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature …, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation … coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051913
Macroeconomic conditions are among the key determinants of the inflation outlook. This paper studies how business … cycles affect the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation forecasts. Using a quantile regression approach, I estimate … the conditional distribution of inflation to assess the impact of business cycle conditions over time and the possible …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832743
A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159651