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sufficiently high ambiguity, more than two messages are often necessary to implement the optimal decision rule of S, though only … not implement the optimal decision rule of S, which is not the case in the absence of ambiguity. Fourth, we show that the … addition of a little ambiguity may generate influential communication that is unambiguously advantageous to S. Fifth, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010211402
Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
This paper develops a belief update rule under ambiguity, motivated by the maxim: in the face of new information …, Maximum Likelihood) are special cases, but avoids the problems that these rules have with updating on complete ignorance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259555
updating rules are quite heterogeneous. For most subjects, we can reject the objective equality hypothesis that beliefs are … pessimism/optimism in beliefs. The Bayesian updating hypothesis can be rejected; Most subjects under-adjust beliefs in response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432016
The α-MEU model and the smooth ambiguity model are two popular models in decision making under ambiguity. However, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422419
Decisions under ambiguity depend on the beliefs regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This … studies. We use laboratory experiments to estimate the subjective belief formation and belief updating process in an ambiguous … be rejected. The recovered belief updating rules reveal that the Bayesian updating hypothesis can be rejected for 84% of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012303335
We study the effect of ambiguity on timing decisions. An agent faces a stopping problem with an uncertain stopping …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014364260
regarding the realization likelihood of cash flows, the subjective attitude towards risk, and the attitude towards ambiguity …. While previous literature looks at the total price discount under ambiguity, this paper investigates with laboratory … belief effects, the risk premiums, and the ambiguity premiums from each other. Both methods lead to similar results: Overall …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485093
Observed individual behavior in the presence of ambiguity is characterized by insufficient responsiveness to changes in … subjective likelihoods. Such likelihood insensitivity under ambiguity is integral to theoretical models and predictive of … and determining factors. This paper investigates the role of beliefs in the form of ambiguity perception - the extent to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013163191
Before choosing her action to match the state of the world, an agent observes a stream of messages generated by some unknown binary signal. The agent can either learn the underlying signal for free and update her belief accordingly or ignore the observed message and keep her prior belief. After...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014511689