Using adequate composite indicators, indeed together with other specific models, to analyse high frequency time series and to obtain sort-term forecasts can improve information for business environment, in modern era characterised by an accelerate process of changing. In our study we tried to...

We estimate agents' expectations about future fundamentals using a dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model augmented with anticipated shocks. Accounting for agents' expectations atthe business cycle horizon results in aggregate risk factor innovations that have significant explanatory power...

This paper develops and estimates a macroeconomic model of real-financial markets interactions in which the behavior of banks generates endogenous business cycles. We do so in the context of a computational agent-based framework, where the channeling of funds from depositors to investors...

Building a macro-finance agent-based model with credit and stock market, we investigate how the increasing role of speculative investors in the ownership structure affects managers' planning horizons and R&D investment-buybacks decisions and, consequently, the resulting macro-economic dynamics...

We obtain a novel formulation for first-order perturbations around the risky steady of a general class of dynamic equilibrium models with time-varying and non-Gaussian risk. We offer explicit formulas and conditions for their local existence and uniqueness. First-order perturbations around the...

This paper develops a simple, consistent methodology for generating empirically realistic forward guidance simulations using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method lies in the exact preservation of all other shock...

We postulate a nonlinear DSGE model with a financial sector and heterogeneous households. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk induces an...

This paper is aimed at investigating the effects of government intervention through unemployment benefits on macroeconomic dynamics in an agent based decentralized matching framework. The major result is that the presence of such a public intervention in the economy stabilizes the aggregate...

We analyze the theoretical moments of a nonlinear approximation to a model of business cycles and asset pricing with stochastic volatility and recursive preferences. We find that heteroskedastic volatility operationalizes a time-varying risk adjustment channel that induces variability in...

Value function iteration is one of the standard tools for the solution of the Ramsey model. We compare six different ways of value function iteration with regard to speed and precision. We find that value function iteration with cubic spline interpolation between grid points dominates the other...