This paper presents a weekly GDP indicator for Switzerland, which addresses the limitations of existing economic activity indicators using alternative high-frequency data created in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indicator is obtained from a Bayesian mixed-frequency dynamic factor model...

This paper investigates the performance of Financial Condition Indexes (FCIs) in forecasting four key macroeconomic variables of EU economies. A wide range of carefully selected financial indicators include Rates and Spreads, Stock Market Indicators and Macroeconomic Quantities. The results...

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...