In this paper, we establish some new central limit theorems for generalized U-statistics of dependent processes under some mild conditions. Such central limit theorems complement existing existing results available from both the econometrics literature and statistics literature. We then look at...

The usual derivation of the Fokker-Planck partial differential eqn. (pde) assumes the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation for a Markov process [1,2]. Starting instead with an Ito stochastic differential equation (sde), we argue that finitely many states of memory are allowed in Kolmogorov’s two pdes,...

I study the properties of optimal long-term contracts in an environment in which the agents type evolves stochastically over time. The model stylizes a buyer-seller relationship but the results apply quite naturally to many contractual situations including regulation and optimal income-taxation....

Using data from Argentina, Australia, Colombia, El Salvador, Peru, and the United States, we identify three types of threshold effects when assessing the impact of economic activity on nonperforming loans (NPLs). For advanced financial systems showing low NPLs, there is an embedded...

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in...

The net worth approach to fiscal analysis is cast in a simple model able to capture the dynamics and steady-state equilibria of public sector's debt, nonfinancial and financial assets, and net worth under alternative fiscal rules, including the golden rule and the golden rule cum debt...

This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...

This paper explores the relationship between the degree of division or fractionalization of a country’s population (along ethnolinguistic and religious dimensions) and both political instability and government consumption, using a neoclassical growth model. The principal idea is that greater...

We propose an alternative approach to stochastic programming based on Monte-Carlo sampling and stochastic gradient optimization. The procedure is by essence probabilistic and the computed solution is a random variable.

The modeling of price risk in the theory and practice of commodity risk management has been developed far beyond that of crop yield risk. This is in large part due to the use of plausible stochastic price processes. We use the Pólya urn to identify and develop a model of the crop yield...