Various plants and resources such as orchards are vulnerable to the detrimental effects of successful invasions by alien animal or plant species. To outline an appropriate policy response, we first use renewal theory to construct a stochastic model of optimal orchard management in the presence...

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...

We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...

Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is a tool that was introduced in the early 50's by Box and Wilson (1951). It is a collection of mathematical and statistical techniques useful for the approximation and optimization of stochastic models. Applications of RSM can be found in e.g. chemical,...

The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type...

This article presents an equivalence notion of finite order stochastic processes. Local dependence measures are defined in terms of joint and marginal densities. The dependence measures are classified topologically using level sets. The corresponding bifurcation theory is illustrated with some...

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

European economic integration is commonly believed to be incomplete, and that further reforms are needed. In this context, the union of U.S. states is considered the benchmark of complete economic integration and is often the basis for comparison regarding the extent of E.U economic integration....

In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive estimation of the parameters in an auxiliary model. The learning scheme employed by the agents belongs to the class of stochastic approximation algorithms whose gain sequence is...

Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility models. While variants of the GARCH model are applied in scores of articles, use of the stochastic volatility model is less widespread. In this articleit is argued that one...