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-dimensional variable selection algorithms such as Lasso and OCMT. It is shown that the relationship between many socioeconomic variables … regional models predict a close electoral college outcome. The predictions are split: the Lasso-regional model forecasts a … narrow Democratic electoral victory, while the OCMT-regional model forecasts a narrow Republican victory. All models point …
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This paper develops a recursive model of voter turnout and voting outcomes at U.S. county level to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of recent U.S. presidential elections. It is shown that the relationship between many socioeconomic variables and voting outcomes is not uniform across...
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