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Model averaging in Markov-switching models : predicting national recessions with regional data

Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - In: Economics letters 157 (2017), pp. 45-49

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011847300

Model averaging in Markov-switching models : predicting national recessions with regional data

Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011791491

Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle

Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - 2015

-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486869

Is a 70 % forecast more accurate than a 30 % forecast? : how level of a forecast affects inferences about forecasts and forecasters

Bagchi, Rajesh; Ince, Elise Chandon - In: Journal of marketing research : JMR 53 (2016) 1, pp. 31-45

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450360

Forecasting in the presence of instabilities : how do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them

Rossi, Barbara - 2019 - This Draft: November 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012209873

Markov switching rationality

Odendahl, Florens; Rossi, Barbara; Sekhposyan, Tatevik - In: Essays in honor of Joon Y. Park : econometric …, (pp. 35-64). 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315144

Short-term forecast of Ukrainian economy including shadow sector using causal simulation model

Vasylenko, Yuri V. - In: Mokslo darbai / Vilniaus Universitetas 99 (2020) 1, pp. 131-145

various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations. The model is used to forecast the whole (legal … Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264616

Forecasting gold-price fluctuations : a real-time boosting approach

Pierdzioch, Christian; Risse, Marian; Rohloff, Sebastian - In: Applied economics letters 22 (2015) 1/3, pp. 46-50

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482090

The myths about forecasting, business cycles and time series, which prevent economists to forecast : with an application to shipping industry

Goulielmos, Alexandros M. - In: Modern economy 8 (2017) 12, pp. 1455-1477

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011785609

Local prediction pools

Oelrich, Oscar; Villani, Mattias; Ankargren, Sebastian - In: Journal of forecasting 43 (2024) 1, pp. 103-117

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014443187

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