We suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post-Bretton Woods period can be described by a stationary, two state Markov switching AR(1) model. Based on the forecast performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we find that this model out-performs two competing...

This paper develops analytical methods to forecast the distribution of future returns for a new continuous-time process, the Poisson multi-fractal. The process captures the thick tails, volatility persistence and moment scaling exhibited by many financial time series. It can be interpreted as a...

Long-horizon regression tests are widely used in empirical finance, despite evidence of severe size distortions. I propose a new bootstrap method for small-sample inference in long-horizon regressions. A Monte Carlo study shows that this bootstrap test greatly reduces the size distortions of...

The objective of this analysis is to find the best hierarchical model to forecast the total demand for regular gasoline in Bogotá, Colombia and, therefore, the collection of gasoline surcharges, which is an important tax used to finance road networks and massive transportation systems. We used...

The objective of this analysis is to find the best hierarchical model to forecast the total demand for regular gasoline in Bogotá, Colombia and, therefore, the collection of gasoline surcharges, which is an important tax used to finance road networks and massive transportation systems. We used...

In this paper we examine the forecasting performance of five nonlinear GARCH(1,1) models. Four of these have recently been proposed in literature, while the fifth model is a new one. All five models allow for switching persistence of shocks, depending on the value and/or sign of recent returns....

In early 2009, the incoming Obama administration’s Council of Economic Advisers predicted real GDP would rebound strongly from recession levels. In a blog post, Greg Mankiw expressed skepticism. In their blogs, Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman sighed. Of course there would be strong growth, they...

Technological developments and the global economic crisis are two types of developments that have affected the commercial airline industry in the last decade. This paper investigates time series analysis of the airline industry. The research has been conducted and is being presented, in a number...