The determinants of transitions between different states of financial distress are analyzed using two versions of Markov chain models: a multinomial logit model without random effects and a multinomial logit model capturing such unobservable factors. The empirical analysis is based on a panel...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of...

We address the issue of estimation and inference in dependent non-stationary panels of small cross-section dimensions. The main conclusion is that the best results are obtained applying bootstrap inference to single-equation estimators, such as FM-OLS and DOLS. SUR estimators perform badly, or...

This paper proposes two new panel cointegrating rank tests which are robust to cross-sectional dependency. The dependence in the data generating process is modeled using unobserved common factors. The new tests are based on a metaanalytic approach, in which the p-values of the individual...

A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

In this paper we add to the debate on the public capital - productivity link by exploiting very recent developments in the panel time series literature that take into account cross sectional correlation in non-stationary panels. In particular we evaluate the productive effect of public capital...

This paper builds two factor discrete time models in order to investigate the effect of sovereign risk on the nominal exchange rates in a Markov switching framework. The empirical section of the paper uses seven currencies from Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Japan, Korea, and...

The problem of instrument proliferation and its consequences (overfitting of endogenous variables, bias of estimates, weakening of Sargan/Hansen test) are well known. The literature provides little guidance on how many instruments is too many. It is common practice to report the instrument count...

The problem of instrument proliferation and its consequences (overfitting of the endogenous explanatory variables, biased IV and GMM estimators, weakening of the power of the overidentification tests) are well known. This paper introduces a statistical method to reduce the instrument count. The...

This paper focuses on the estimation of fiscal response functions for advanced economies and on the performance of alternative specifications of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator for the rule's parameters. We first estimate the parameters on simulated data through Monte Carlo...