The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...

We study two linear estimators for stationary invertible VARMA models in echelon form to achieve identification (model parameter unicity) with known Kronecker indices. Such linear estimators are much simpler to compute than Gaussian maximum-likelihood estimators often proposed for such models,...

Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) had experienced an export boom as well as a surge in capital inflows up to the outbreak of the economic and financial crisis, which had a major negative impact on these two facets of the CESEE growth model. Did the long-term growth prospects of...

Using data for SAARC region, we found real GDP per capita is nonlinear stationary implying that shocks to economy by economic policies (external or internal) have permanent effects on real per capita GDP of SAARC countries. This finding reveals that classical growth model works better to boost...

In this paper we analyze Granger causality testing in a mixed-frequency VAR, originally proposed by Ghysels 2012, where the difference in sampling frequencies of the variables is large. In particular, we investigate whether past information on a low-frequency variable help in forecasting a...

Money demand specifications exhibits instability, especially for long spans of data. This paper reconsiders the welfare cost of inflation for the US economy using a flexible timevarying cointegration methodology to estimate the money demand function. We find evidence that the time-varying...

This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and per capita output across 50 US states and the District of Columbia over 1975 to 2012. A bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is applied on a trivariate VAR comprising of real house prices, real stock prices and real...

This paper investigates whether changes in monetary transmission mechanism respond to variations in asset prices. We distinguish between bull and bear markets and employ a TVP- VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the monetary policy in relation to housing and stock...

This paper attempts to provide evidence of “shift-volatility” transmission in the East Asian equity markets. By “shift-volatility”, we mean the volatility shifts from a low level to a high level, corresponding respectively to tranquil and crisis periods. We examine the interdependence of...

The present study deals with an empirical investigation between CO2 emissions, energy intensity, economic growth and globalization using annual data over the period of 1970- 2010 for Turkish economy. We applied unit root test and cointegration approach in the presence of structural breaks. The...