The new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models seems particularly suited for conducting scenario analysis. These models formalise the behaviour of economic agents on the basis of explicit micro-foundations. As a result, they appear less prone to the Lucas critique...

The new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models seems particularly suited for conducting scenario analysis. These models formalise the behaviour of economic agents on the basis of explicit micro-foundations. As a result, they appear less prone to the Lucas critique...

This paper proposes a new and robust methodology to obtain conditional density forecasts, based on information not contained in an initial econometric model. The methodology allows to condition on expected marginal densities for a selection of variables in the model, rather than just on future...

This paper proposes a new and robust methodology to obtain conditional density forecasts, based on information not contained in an initial econometric model. The methodology allows to condition on expected marginal densities for a selection of variables in the model, rather than just on future...

This paper proposes a new and robust methodology to obtain conditional density forecasts, based on information not contained in an initial econometric model. The methodology allows to condition on expected marginal densities for a selection of variables in the model, rather than just on future...

We estimate the effects of interest rate forward guidance (FG) using a parsimonious VAR, augmented with survey forecast data. The identification strategy of FG shocks via sign and zero restrictions is successfully tested by the recovery of true IRFs from simulated data. The identified shocks...

Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the...