This paper studies the evolution of the natural interest rate in five Southeast Asian countries and considers the effect of economic shocks on the natural interest rate in these countries. The natural interest rate is the interest rate that would prevail in an economy in equilibrium and in the...

Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...

The neutral real rate of interest (r*) is a key variable for assessing the tightness of monetary policy. The neutral real interest rate has by all accounts fallen substantially over the past three decades, amid slowing productivity growth, an ageing population, increased inequality and increased...