Following the 2000 stockmarket crash, have US interest rates been held "too low" in relation to their natural level? Most likely, yes. Using a structural neo-Keynesian model, this paper attempts a real-time evaluation of the US monetary policy stance while ensuring consistency between the...

This paper analyses the determinants of the natural rate of interest in a nonlinear model where agents are uncertain over both future technology growth and the future course of monetary policy. I show that the real natural rate can be affected by sizable uncertainty premia, including premia...