This paper investigates determinants of informal economic activity. We present an equilibrium model of informality and test its implications using a survey of 48,000 small firms in Brazil. We define informality as tax avoidance; firms in the informal sector avoid tax payments but suffer other...

This paper investigates determinants of informal economic activity. We present an equilibrium model of informality and test its implications using a survey of 48,000 small firms in Brazil. We define informality as tax avoidance; firms in the informal sector avoid tax payments but suffer other...

We propose an origination-and-contingent-distribution model of banking, in which liquidity demand by short-term investors (banks) can be met with cash reserves (inside liquidity) or sales of assets (outside liquidity) to long-term investors (hedge funds and pension funds). Outside liquidity is a...

We study asset and debt characteristics of US bank holding companies. We show that financial institutions, especially large institutions, are not just about holding discrete assets. Services and going-concern values are important, and capital market debt against going-concern values accounts for...

U.S. beef cattle stocks are among the most periodic time-series in economics. A theory of cattle cycles is constructed, based upon rational breeding stock inventory decisions in the presence of gestation and maturation delays between production and consumption. The low fertility rates of cows...

We present a menu-cost pricing model with a large but finite number n of firms. A firm’s nominal price increase lowers other firms’ relative prices, thereby inducing further nominal price increases. The distribution of these repricing avalanches converges as n→∞ to a mixture of...

Continuous-time Markov processes can be characterized conveniently by their infinitesimal generators. For such processes there exist forward and reverse-time generators. We show how to use these generators to construct moment conditions implied by stationary Markov processes. Generalized method...

Recursive utility models of the type introduced by Kreps and Porteus (1978) are used extensively in applied research in macroeconomics and asset pricing in environments with uncertainty. These models represent preferences as the solution to a nonlinear forward-looking difference equation with a...

We develop a speculation-based theory of home improvements. Housing services are produced from a mix of land and structures. Homeowners optimistic about future prices for these services speculate by making improvements, which we model as them increasing their structures holding fi xed their...

We study the relationship between compensation and risk-taking among finance firms using a neglected insight from principal-agent contracting with hidden action and risk-averse agents. If the sensitivity of pay to stock price or slope does not vary with stock price volatility, then total...