We propose two new risk measures (i-beta and i-gamma) for a stock, which aim to distinguish between noise and information. Noise allows the stock price evolution to happen along a continuous path. Market wide economic information is transmitted via price jumps. Noise is idiosyncratic and does...

Electricity markets feature a non-storable underlying, which implies the break down of traditional cash-and-carry arguments as well as the well-known spot-forward relationship. We introduce the notion of information premium to describe the influence of future information - such as planned power...

A number of studies on the S&P 500 index options market claim that the no arbitrage assumption cannot be rejected for this market because either the martingale restriction defined in Longstaff (1995) cannot be rejected by the data, or, even when it is rejected, a large proportion of the...

Traders worldwide use interest rate options and futures to speculate on future monetary decisions, in particular in countries where the monetary regime is Inflation Targeting (IT). Central Banks under an IT regime tend to define the target rate on scheduled meetings. We propose in this paper a...

In this article we derive risk-neutral option price formulas for both plain-vanilla and exotic electricity futures derivatives on the basis of diverse arithmetic multi-factor Ornstein-Uhlenbeck spot price models admitting seasonality, while – in order to avoid “information...

We present a new option-pricing model, which explicitly captures the difference in the persistence of volatility under historical and risk-neutral probabilities. The model also allows to capture the empirical properties of pricing kernels, such as time-variation and the typical S-shape. We apply...

The implied volatility from Black and Scholes (1973) model has been empirically tested for the forecasting performance of future volatility and commonly shown to be biased. Based on the belief that the implied volatility from option prices is the best estimate of future volatility, this study...

In this paper, we derive a closed-form explicit model-free formula for the (Black-Scholes) implied volatility. The method is based on the novel use of the Dirac Delta function, corresponding delta families, and the change of variable technique. The formula is expressed through either a limit or...

In this paper, we present a novel method to extract the risk-neutral probability of default of a from from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed in Carr and Wu (2011), we derive a parsimonious closed-form formula for American put option price from which...

Using day-end pricing data from a comprehensive data base not readily available outside of China, an algorithm to trade near-the-money call option time spreads on China's SSE 50 ETF was developed and tested. Analysis of in-sample data, suggested profitable trading rules that, when applied to...