This paper constructs a manager sentiment index based on the aggregated textual tone of corporate financial disclosures. We find that manager sentiment is a strong negative predictor of future aggregate stock market returns, with monthly in-sample and out-of-sample R2 of 9.75% and 8.38%,...

The research literature shows that investor sentiment is a contrarian predictor of aggregate stock market returns. However, we contend that investor sentiment only predicts aggregate stock market returns during high-sentiment states where overpricing is more prevalent than underpricing. Using a...

This study investigates the volatility forecasting abilities of return-based and range-based estimators for two stock indices and two individual stocks in the U.S. stock market. The forecasting performances are evaluated by two robust statistical loss functions, and further by financial...

A predictable pattern of stock market return is the violation of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). It is well studied and evident in financial literature that stock markets around the world have predictable patterns e.g. calendar effect, behavioural effect, and Religious festival effect....

A predictable pattern of stock market return is the violation of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). It is well studied and evident in financial literature that stock markets around the world have predictable patterns, e.g. calendar effect, behavioural effect, and Religious festival effect....

This study investigates the determinants of trading activity in the U.S. corporate bond market, focusing on the effects of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) and macroeconomic announcements. Employing the General-to-Specific (Gets) Autometrics methodology, we identify distinct behavioral...

The objective of this article is to investigate the volatility asymmetry, volatility-volume relationship by considering trading volume as a mixing variable, and the risk-return relationship in the Indian stock market. Daily data from January 2, 1997 to May 30, 2013 for S&P CNX Nifty are used for...

Conducting the first study of momentum impact on households' ETF trading behavior, we find that Finnish households are less contrarian when trading benchmark index ETFs than when trading common stocks. Also, their propensity to chase recent positive momentum is higher when purchasing ETFs than...

We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as...