This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the pattern and behavior of Economic Long Waves over time, using the long-wave chronologies of two driving economies, the USA and the UK. The statistical evidence seems in general to support the hypothesis that Long Waves are not symmetric and their...

This paper presents a New Keynesian DSGE model with inventory holding firms. The model distinguishes between goods and materials, for both production as well as for inventories. The more detailed treatment of inventory holdings offers new insights into the determinants of business cycles before...

We study an economy with a time-varying distribution of production to examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. In our model, entrepreneurs use risky, long-term debt to finance capital. Liquid assets serve as collateral and transaction costs make debt illiquid. Debt...

The aim of this paper, which is part of a broader research project, is to analyse the fluctuations of output in a framework of imperfect competition based on the stylised facts. We conclude that these movements can be originated by supply or demand shocks, or simply by the adjustment of the...

This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on the macro economy by replicating its micro effects on individual subjective beliefs. In our model, the representative household has smooth ambiguity preferences and is uncertain about which scenario the economy will be in the next period:...

This paper analyzes the technical change characterized by replacing labor with machinery in the production process. Generally, this type of technical change does not alter total factor productivity (TFP). Meanwhile, there exists a complementary relationship between the technical change and...

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...

A recent paper by Young (2004) demonstrated that biased technical changes, in the form of shocks to labor's share/elasticity, can drive economically large fluctuations in a real business cycle (RBC) model. We examine the cyclical properties of 4 quarterly measures of US labor's share from 1959...

This paper analyzes conditions for determinacy in a new Keynesian model with endogenous growth. Endogenous growth shrinks the determinacy region considerably. Complying with the Taylor principle is not sufficient for determinacy, which decreases in the spillovers from actual on potential output....