This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of macroeconomic outcomes to financial market disturbances and the central bank’s role in financial stability. Our two major contributions are conceptual and econometric. Conceptually, we introduce phases of the business cycle and...

After the Global Financial Crisis of 2007After the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09, economists are reconsidering the appropriate role of monetary policy towards equity bubbles. This paper contributes to these deliberations by estimating the response of the stock market to a monetary policy...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an innovative model to evaluate the fair price of a subset of structured products for a hypothetical US structured bond. Design/methodology/approach –The authors assume that interest rates dynamics are described by the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross...

We review spread's predictive ability by implementing a number of linear and probit models. We conduct a comparative analysis of the forecasting performance of various specifications by focusing on the last three major US economic slowdowns: 1990, 2001 and 2007. The results indicate that...