This paper presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar’s main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are...

This paper analyzes the impact of an ethanol import tariff in conjunction with a consumption mandate and tax credit. A tax credit alone acts as a subsidy to ethanol producers, equally benefiting exporters like Brazil. If an import tariff is imposed to offset the tax credit, world prices of...

The core idea behind the paper is that trade policy matters for the organization of global value chains, a notion largely neglected by economists but which has important implications for our understanding of trade and the international transmission of trade policy shocks. We develop a...

We propose a multi-country model with occupational choice, heterogeneous firms, unemployment, and revenue-generating tariffs to study the aggregate and distributional consequences of tariff wars in a unified framework. Motivated by the 2018 global tariff war, we calibrate the model to fit a...

This paper provides an economic analysis of the trade conflict between the US and China, providing an overview of the tariff increases, a discussion of the background of the trade conflict, and an analysis of the economic effects of the trade conflict, based both on empirics (ex post analysis)...

This paper studies the distributional costs to US consumers of country-specific tariffs. By linking detailed household purchase records with a barcode-specific country-of-origin, I estimate a demand model with both detailed consumer heterogeneity and rich import substitution patterns in the face...

Policymakers often intervene in markets to protect domestic producers against foreign competitors. Two such interventions are import tariffs and production subsidies, both of which are, in general, costly. Tariffs on foreign producers, while generating revenues for the policymaker, may impose...

During the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. punitive tariffs were almost entirely borne by U.S. importers. In contrast, only 68% of China's retaliatory tariffs were paid by Chinese importers. The puzzling difference between the U.S. and China is mainly driven by their different import structures...

We develop a method to measure the incidence of monopolistic markup distortions in the global economy. Using semi-parametric formulas, we measure how trade modifies the deadweight loss of markups through two channels: (1) trade-induced change in markup dispersion, and (2) international...

We investigate the extent to which the effect of the 2018/2019 US import tariff hikes on US (post-tariff) import prices was offset by the concurrent appreciation of the US dollar and trace the source of the appreciation back to US trade policy itself. The dollar response to trade policy...