This paper measures risk in the present value of workers’ remaining lifetime earnings. Building upon a common earnings specification, our estimate combines flexible, heterogeneous forecasts of individuals’ expected earnings growth rates and the variances of potential permanent and temporary...

A feature of last decade’s mortgage crisis was that the credit risk of borrowers was not accurately priced into their mortgages. For example, the increased risk of delinquency was not associated with a higher interest rate. I confirm this belief by using a measure of earnings risk, a major...

We add to the debate about whether empirical models of earnings dynamics should allow for unobservable heterogeneity in expected earnings growth rates by considering the consequences for estimating the variance of earnings shocks. Several tests are proposed, some that extend and augment earlier...

Coasian reasoning predicts that the conditions under which parties may terminate a partnership will affect bargaining between partners, but not the durability of partnerships. This paper endeavors to test both predictions in an experimental setting that allows agents to form and end partnerships...