In 1971, President Nixon declared war on cancer. Thirty years later, many declared this war a failure: the age-adjusted mortality rate from cancer in 2000 was essentially the same as in the early 1970s. Meanwhile the age-adjusted mortality rate from cardiovascular disease fell dramatically....

Competing risks models are fundamentally unidentified. This paper derives bounds for aspects of the underlying distributions under a number of different assumptions. These bounds are then applied to mortality data from the US. We find that trends in cancer show much larger improvements than was...