This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vec-tor autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We consider the fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model of Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) and show that the test statistic for the ususal CVAR model is asymptotically chi-squared distributed. Because the usual CVAR model lies on the boundary of the parameter space for the...

This paper provides some test cases, called circuits, for the evaluation of Gaussian likelihood maximization algorithms of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Both I(1) and I(2) models are considered. The performance of algorithms is compared first in terms of effectiveness, defined as...

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between real money demand, real income, interest rates and real consumption. The paper provide a mixed strategy for estimating the money demand function that incorporates shifting from a system of equations vector auto regression (VAR)...

The maximum likelihood estimator of the adjustment coefficient in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model (CVAR) is generally biased. For the case where the cointegrating vector is known in a first-order CVAR with no intercept, we derive a condition for the unbiasedness of the maximum...