This article explores the trade and financial channels through which foreign developments can be transmitted to the UK. We quantify how global developments have affected UK GDP historically, and analyse their potential influence in future rare events. We also discuss the actions taken following...

In this paper, we produce short term forecasts for the inflation in Turkey, using a large number of econometric models. In particular, we employ univariate models, decomposition based approaches (both in frequency and time domain), a Phillips curve motivated time varying parameter model, a suite...