Using both the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the most recent Russia-Ukraine war and associated trade tensions, we show a counterintuitive pattern in global trade. Namely, while the average firm trading with these nations significantly decreases their trade with these jurisdictions...

This paper reviews economic growth theory in the framework of economic development and explores the possibility of sustained growth in the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the long run. We argue that the PRC has the potential to sustain relatively high growth rates. First, since the...

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010) and Blagrave and...

We empirically document that the “dumb money” effect exists for the aggregate stock market. We define the “Household Equity Share” (HEShare), the share of household equity and fixed income assets allocated to equities. HEShare negatively forecasts excess returns on the aggregate US stock...