This paper presents a tool to detect the accumulation of risks in emerging market economies based on a synthetic index of “vulnerability” for three different types of crisis (sovereign, currency and banking crises). To build the index we first use a signalling approach (Auroc) to preselect...

For central banks, it is crucial to develop and maintain risk identification frameworks that allow them to detect in good time and address potential threats to financial stability with the most appropriate policy tools. This paper reviews the main indicators developed for this purpose by the...

In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply...

This article analyzes the impact of the unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) of four major central banks (the Fed, ECB, BoE and BOJ) on market uncertainty. We exploit the heterogeneity of different UMP actions to disentangle their influence on reducing the ex ante perception of extreme events...

In a simplied theoretical framework, we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply...

In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply...

This paper empirically analyzes the role of institutional factors in shaping the dynamics of gross capital flows. We build an institutional quality index and test its relevance for both gross capital inflows and outflows using a panel of 56 countries, differentiating between high-income and...

The European Central Bank’s and the Federal Reserve’s announcements of unconventional monetary policies have contributed to significantly reducing market perceptions of the probability of extreme macro-financial events. This phenomenon has arisen in periods of intense market strain, such as...

This article analyzes the impact of the unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) of four major central banks (the Fed, ECB, BoE and BOJ) on the probability of future market crashes. We exploit the heterogeneity of different UMP actions to disentangle their influence on reducing the ex ante...