This paper analyzes the relation between exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per capita output growth, the credit cycle, the stock of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member...

There are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: growth in GDP especially, but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15-24 age group appears to be one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting...

Why are foreigners willing to invest almost $2 trillion per year in the United States? The answer affects if the existing pattern of global imbalances can persist and if the United States can continue to finance its current account deficit without a major change in asset prices and returns. This...

The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through to prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its...

Traditionally, the literature that attempts to explain the link between the current account and output finds a linear negative relationship (e.g., Backus et al., 1995). Using nonparametric regressions, we find a robust U-shaped relationship between the U.S. current account and the GDP cycle....

Current account imbalances and their sustainability are among the most debated international policy issues. Through the recently designed External Balance Assessment methodology (EBA), the IMF estimates the impact of several countries' fundamentals and policies on their current account balance,...

We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample,...

The paper investigates cyclical fluctuations in the current and financial (formerly capital) accounts of the balance of payments and major underlying components for nine industrial countries. The empirical model uses as explanatory variables domestic output growth, price inflation, real exchange...

Emerging market economies, which have much of their growth ahead of them, run persistent current account deficits in order to smooth consumption intertemporally. The counterpart of these deficits is their dependence on capital inflows, which can suddenly stop. In this paper we develop and...