The trade war between the United States and China has a significant impact on high-yield spreads, long-term interest rates, and stock prices. However, the 10-year-minus-2-year Treasury yield spread, whose inversion generated significant media chatter about a looming recession, does not seem to...

The US-China trade war forced a reluctant semiconductor industry into someone else’s fight, a very different position from its leading role in the 1980s trade conflict with Japan. This paper describes how the political economy of the global semiconductor industry has evolved since the 1980s....

A burning topic today is the freedom of international trade, namely the degree of intervention of the state in the economy. Like most of the developed countries, the U.S. got rich and promoted its young industries by applying tariffs and quotas. Protectionist measures proved to be beneficial in...

We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the last decades. We first discuss the origins of the China shock, its measurement, and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus...

The trade war between the United States and China since 2008 has opened strategic opportunities to increase the economic market in ASEAN countries. This research aims to answer whether the trade war led to an oligopoly or a systemic market structure as a strategy for increasing demands,...

Recently a market in options based on CPI inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these pdfs respond to news announcements, and find that the implied odds of deflation...

We study the financial impact of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war on firms engaged in global supply chains. Around the dates when higher tariffs were announced, U.S. firms depending more on exports to and imports from China experienced larger declines in market values. Guided by a model that...