In this paper we empirically explore the relationship between debt and output in a panel of 72 countries over the period 1970-2014 using a vector autoregression (VAR). We document two puzzling empirical findings that contrast with what is predicted by a standard small open economy model by...

I show that corporate debt accumulation during booms can explain increases in sovereign risk during stress periods. Using idiosyncratic shocks to large firms as instruments for aggregate corporate leverage, I show that rising corporate leverage during the period 2002-2007 causally increases...

This paper calls attention to the role of the secondary market in shortening the duration of sovereign debt renegotiation. Consider a dynamic bargaining game with incomplete information between a government and creditors. The creditors' reservation is private information, and the government...

We study time-consistent debt policies in a trade-off model of debt in which the firm can freely issue new debt and repurchase existing debt. A debt policy is time-consistent if in any state equityholders prefer to follow it rather than to deviate from it but lose credibility in sustaining debt...

We assess, via system GMM, how Stock Flow Adjustments (SFA) affect the debt-to-GDP ratio in 65 countries (covering developed and emerging and low-income countries) between 1985-2014. We find that SFAs positively contribute to the change in the debt-to-GDP ratio with a coefficient close to one....

We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and lack of monetary policy...

We analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation on sovereign bonds. For high default risk countries, CDS initiation provides significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS initiation also reduces average risk premiums, with reductions...

An important ineffciency in sovereign debt markets is debt dilution, wherein sovereigns ignore the adverse impact of new debt on the value of existing debt and, consequently, borrow too much and default too frequently. A widely proposed remedy is the inclusion of seniority clause in sovereign...

One of the main conclusions of Reinhart and Rogoff's study of sovereign debt crises, highlighted in its title This Time is Different, is that markets for sovereign debt are prone to manic mood swings. When things go well for an extended period, lenders tend to underestimate risks of crisis. They...

This paper explores how selective default expectations affect the pricing of sovereign bonds in a historical laboratory: the German default of the 1930s. We analyze yield differentials between identical government bonds traded across various creditor countries before and after bond market...