out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to twelve quarters. Housing construction is negatively associated with risk …

financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral densities from the implied volatilities of FX options, which approximate … market expectations about exchange rate developments. Based on these risk-neutral density estimates, we then assess the out … also find that, for the Czech Republic and Poland, risk-neutral densities contain useful information on the direction of …

forecast levels. A country's proximity to the US, importance to the firm, and visibility, as well as availability of more … precise information about foreign country exposures, contribute to consensus forecast efficiency. We identify a dimension of … — and show that it contributes to forecast efficiency, accuracy, and informativeness and that it helps the analyst achieve …

unusually optimistic earnings forecast at the end of the year that increases the likelihood of an earnings miss. We first … difficult-to-beat forecast as a final earnings forecast prior to the earnings announcement that exceeds even the most optimistic … forecast issued by any other analyst covering the stock. We find that 11% of all firm-year observations are subject to at least …

We substantially improve cross-sectional earnings forecast models, such as Hou, van Dijk, and Zhang (2012), by …

(integrated) production of information. Nonetheless, this paper documents significant stock return and forecast revision …