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and among the best-performing univariate benchmarks, while still being truly out-of-sample. The ability to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225686
Conducting, to our knowledge, the largest study ever of five-minute equity market returns using state-of-the-art machine learning models trained on the cross-section of lagged market index constituent returns, we show that regularized linear models and nonlinear tree-based models yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242608
We examine article, author and firm characteristics of investment articles published by non-professional analysts on the social media investment platform Seeking Alpha from 2006 to 2020 leading to visible market value changes. We show that there are differences between articles followed by stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290160
The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of sentiment derived from news headlines on the direction of stock price changes. The study examines stocks listed on the WIG-banking sub-sector index on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Two types of data were used: textual and market data. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012887921
We predict and find that revisions are driven by the same determinants as forecast errors. In addition to the intuitive … systematically bias their earnings forecasts. Taken together, both drivers explain about 42% of the variability in earnings forecast … downward revision to compensate for the initial induced forecast optimism …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143801
less so. We confirm this prediction empirically for sell-side equity analysts' forecasts using a new measure of forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392738
paper is to investigate whether following the Tunisian stock market opening, both the analyst forecast accuracy and the … increasing with time. Second, we find evidence that earnings expectations are not mainly based on analyst forecast in the first … (2010–2015) as analyst forecast better explain returns and exhibit greater relative information content. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882305
In this paper, we examined and compared the forecast performances of the dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DNS), dynamic Nelson …–Siegel–Svensson (DNSS), and arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel (AFNS) models after the financial crisis period. The best model for the forecast … that the AFNS is superior to the DNS model in the long forecast horizon. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039649
We study how the quality of investors' information across horizons influences investment. In our theory, managers care about how investment is impounded in current stock prices. Because prices imperfectly reflect investment’s value, they under-invest. However, they under-invest less when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236279
We systematically re-examine the efficacy of trend-based technical indicators in predicting cryptocurrency market returns at daily, weekly, and monthly horizons. It shows that the price-based signals are more effective than the volume-based signals in the short horizon (daily and weekly), while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239497