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The human development index as isoelastic GDP : evidence from China and Pakistan
Bechtel, Gordon G. - In: Economies : open access journal 6 (2018) 2, pp. 1-9
Gross domestic product (GDP) is shown to possess three new desiderata. First, GDP is almost perfectly correlated over time with the first principal component of its three classical indicators. Second, this principal component is in a class of weighted indexes ancillary to GDP. Each ancillary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011854775
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Anticipating critical transitions of Chinese housing markets
Zhang, Qunzi; Sornette, Didier; Zhang, Hao - 2017
we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of … are applied to provide early warning signals of the housing markets in China's major cities. Third, we determine the … evolution of China's housing market via our multi-scales and multi-quantiles analyses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761282
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The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time
Girardi, Alessandro - 2014
Building on the literature on regularization and dimension reduction methods, we have developed a quarterly forecasting model for euro area GDP. This method consists in bridging quarterly national accounts data using factors extracted from a large panel of monthly and quarterly series including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060909
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The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro area GDP in pseudo real time
Girardi, Alessandro; Golinelli, Roberto; Pappalardo, Carmine - 2014 - This draft: 13/01/2014
Building on the literature on regularization and dimension reduction methods, we have developed a quarterly forecasting model for euro area GDP. This method consists in bridging quarterly national accounts data using factors extracted from a large panel of monthly and quarterly series including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011729137
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Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy?
Bjørnland, Hilde C. - 2017
Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze if revisions to these projections (i.e., forward guidance) can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961019
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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584223
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Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220135
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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220181
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The Power of Text-based Indicators in Forecasting the Italian Economic Activity
Aprigliano, Valentina; Emiliozzi, Simone; Guaitoli, Gabriele - 2021
Can we use newspaper articles to forecast economic activity? Our answer is yes and, to this end, we propose a brand new economic dictionary in Italian with valence shifters, and we apply it to a corpus of about two million articles from four popular newspapers. We produce a set of high-frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226486
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Nowcasting and Forecasting GDP Growth with Machine-Learning Sentiment Indicators
Claveria, Oscar; Monte, Enric; Torra, Salvador - 2021
We apply the two-step machine-learning method proposed by Claveria et al. (2021) to generate country-specific sentiment indicators that provide estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates. In the first step, by means of genetic programming, business and consumer expectations are evolved to derive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238396