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Benchmarking Canada-China Economic Relations

Chen, Victor Zitian - 2014

This paper benchmarks Canada's bilateral economic ties with China and compares them with those of other G7 member … bilateral economic flows except its outward foreign direct investment to China. In comparison with other G7 countries and … Australia, Canada has under-weighed China as an international partner except in its imports from that country. The predicted …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013068924

Evaluating short-run forecasting properties of the KOF employment indicator for Switzerland in real time

Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009

This study investigates the usefulness of the business tendency surveys collected at the KOF institute for short-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to simulate the actual predictive process using only...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003909485

Cyclical dynamics of industrial production and employment : Markov chain-based estimates and test

Altuğ, Sumru; Tan, Barış; Gencer, Gözde - 2011

This paper characterizes the business cycle as a recurring Markov chain for a broad set of developed and developing countries. The objective is to understand differences in cyclical phenomena across a broad range of countries based on the behavior of two key economic times series - industrial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008808148

Googlemetrie und Arbeitsmarkt in der Wirtschaftskrise

Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009

Die große Wirtschaftskrise hat bisher nur verhaltene Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen. Angesichts der unsicheren weiteren konjunkturellen Entwicklung, der schlechten Auslastung der Arbeitskräfte in den Unternehmen und der hohen Kurzarbeit erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003874816

Should we trust in leading indicators? : evidence from the recent recession

Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2010

The paper analyzes leading indicators for GDP and industrial production in Germany. We focus on the performance of single and pooled leading indicators during the pre-crisis and crisis period using various weighting schemes. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003961067

A classifying procedure for signaling turning points

Koskinen, Lasse; Öller, Lars-Erik - 2001

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to classify an out of sample observation vector into either of two regimes. This leads to a procedure for making probability forecasts for changes of regimes in a time series, i.e. for turning points. Instead o maximizing a likelihood, the model is estimated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009502701

The Swiss business cycle and the lead of small neighbor Liechtenstein

Brunhart, Andreas - 2015

This contribution investigates the business cycles of Switzerland compared to its five neighboring countries Germany, Austria, Italy, France and Liechtenstein. In contrast to the widespread notion of small countries "importing" the business cycle from bigger neighbors, it is shown that the real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011427978

Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads : a multicountry regime-switching analysis

Ahrens, Ralf - 1999

This study uses Markov-switching models to evaluate the informational content of the term structure as a predictor of recessions in eight OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that for all countries the term spread is sensibly modelled as a two-state regime-switching process. Moreover,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768273

Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies

Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2013

The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010198066

A novel ex-ante leading indicator for the EU industrial production

Donadelli, Michael; Paradiso, Antonio; Riedel, Max - 2015

We build a novel leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper is able to produce an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434806