Betting quotes provide valuable information on market-implied probabilities for outcomes of events like elections or referendums, which may have an impact on exchange rates. We generate exchange rate forecasts around such events based on a model that combines risk-neutral event probabilities...

A risk-neutral valuation framework is developed for pricing and hedging in-play football bets based on modelling scores by independent Poisson processes with constant intensities. The Fundamental Theorems of Asset Pricing are extended to this set up which enables us to derive novel...

Some consumption opportunities are both indivisible and only valuable in particular tates of nature. The existence of such state-dependent indivisible consumption opportunities influences a person’s risk attitudes. In general, people are not risk averse anymore even if utility from divisible...